Somin: Prop 98 Likely to Fail, 99 to Pass

Ilya Somin at Volokh: Polls on California Eminent Domain Ballot Initiatives Show Prop 98 Likely to Fail and Prop 99 Likely to Pass:

In a recent Field Poll cited in the article, Proposition 98 was losing by 43 to 33 percent among “likely voters,” while Proposition 99 was ahead by 48 to 30 percent. A slightly earlier poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California has similar results.

If, as is likely, Proposition 98 is defeated, it will probably be a result of the combination of the sponsors’ tactical error in combining the popular anti-eminent domain measure with a far less popular phaseout of rent control (a mistake I criticized in one of my earlier posts), combined with the presence of the deceptive Prop 99 on the ballot. The latter probably led voters to believe that they could protect property rights against takings without simultaneously attacking rent control.

Keep your fingers crossed….